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Will Modi will be the next PM in 2019

With the beginning of Election arena, 2018 is the last year for Modi rule, as next year will be the year of general elections 2019, most probably in the month of April or May. The two major national parties- BJP & Congress will be the locking horns in this 17th general election for securing a majority of seats in the lower house. Modi government had targeted for two continuous terms, and the way they were making clean sweeps in state elections initially, was proof of Modi wave. But the recent Gujarat elections and the uprisings in different parts of the country against the ‘Pro-Hindutva government’, shows a very different side of the coin.

Current BJP’s empire: Will they be retained by BJP in General elections 2019?

Let’s examine the chances of BJP in general elections 2019 with due emphasis on present scenario and upcoming hurdles in the general elections early next year. Out of 29 states, BJP is currently ruling in 19 states with or without an alliance. These 19 states are – Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, U.P, Rajasthan, Manipur, Maharashtra, M.P, Jharkhand, Haryana, Gujarat, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Assam & Arunachal Pradesh with BJP government & states like – Andhra Pradesh (TDP), Bihar (JDU), Jammu & Kashmir (PDP), Nagaland (NPF), & Sikkim (SDF) has BJP’s government in coalition with regional parties.

It includes large states like U.P having 80 seats, Maharashtra with 48 seats, M.P with 40 seats and Bihar with 54 seats in Lok Sabha & in total these states constitute 362 seats out of 543 (+2 Anglo- Indians) seats.

Having control over such a large proportion of seats makes NDA government much stronger than any other party or alliance. Going further & analysing the performance of BJP & share of seats in each ruling sates we get –

These statistics are enough to showcase the grip of BJP in the present scenario.

How will current State legislative elections affect BJP in General elections 2019?

In 2018, assembly polls will be held in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Rajasthan, and Tripura.

Can BJP win the Chhattisgarh elections 2019?

In Chhattisgarh, Raman Singh is holding the CM office for past 14 years. The state is influenced by Maoist insurgency and CRPF, is one of the highly disturbed states of India. The distribution of ‘Tendu leaf plucking’ is being given out to woo the tribal electorate besides extension of the work of RSS affiliates in tribal areas. Raman has doled out smartphones earlier this year and rice at Rs 1 per kg previously. The paddy procurement has been ordered and is being seen as the game changer in the next polls. He is confident that the BJP’s vote share and seats will increase this time. Although the assembly elections slated for November 2018 will be Raman Singh’s toughest yet. The reasons are – one, he would be riding on a three-term incumbency; two, it is not clear as yet whose votes former CM Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) would eat into. While it is expected that Jogi’s party will damage the Congress, since he is originally from the Congress, in 2013 the BJP had won 9 out of the 10 seats in which the satnamis — the community that rallies behind Jogi — have influence. He is targeting the 29 tribal seats in the state where the BJP didn’t do too well last time.

Can BJP win the Karnataka elections 2019?

Now coming to Karnataka where K.Siddaramaiah of Congress is ruling with full majority. Siddaramaiah’s popularity has soared in recent months, mostly due to the populist schemes targeting the economically and socially backward people in the state. In 2015, Siddaramaiah also commissioned a ‘caste census’ (yet to be released) to challenge the dominant caste narrative and give ‘more reservations to backward classes’. Whereas, BJP has named ‘B.S. Yeddyurappa’ as its chief ministerial candidate to counter the growing popularity of Siddaramaiah.

However, the BJP’s five-year rule in Karnataka from 2008-2013 which had seen three chief ministers and number of scams—including the illegal mining case, resort politics and a host of other corruption charges, has a very loose ground in Karnataka and exceptional efforts are to be invested to reap in Karnataka.

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